About a month ago, I talked about how the Flyers will need about 239 goals to safely ensure themselves of a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Well the big question is what are the chances they can score this many goals. In order to figure this out I looked back at the players iShot/60, Shot %, and total shots in a season from the last 3 years. I’m not going to bore you with all the other math, but basically I weighed last season’s iShot/60, Sh%, and total shots more than then the seasons before in my equation and also took in account the players upcoming age. Overall I came up with these projections for each player based off the statistics.
As you can see Voracek, Simmonds, and Giroux are all projected to have great seasons scoring above 25 goals, something I definitely see possible. Matt Read is also projected to have a nice bounce back season with 18 goals. Even Vinny Lecavalier and RJ Umberger will have a decent season with 14 and 13 goals respectively. However even with all this optimism for some of the players, the Flyers will still score only 221 goals this season, 18 goals short of the magic 239. Unfortunately Lecavalier and Umberger scoring a combined 27 goals may be a stretch as well, which could put the Flyers even noticeably lower in their needed goal totals. One noticeable disappointment from these projections is Sean Couturier whose only projected to turn on the red light 13 times. Despite what the statistics say, I don’t think this will happen, I truly believe new coach Dave Hakstol will utilize Couturier better and not drown him in the defensive zone constantly against the opponent’s best players. Remember Couturier had 96 points in 58 games in his last season in the QMJHL. He’s probably not going to score 30 goals ever in his career, but 20-25 is something realistic. If he can become that solid two way centre for the Flyers behind Claude Giroux, the Flyers will turn into Stanley Cup Contenders quickly. What also is disappointing from these projections is the lack of offense coming from the defense, the Flyers achilles heal these past few seasons. Schenn, MacDonald, Schultz, and Gudas are only projected a combined total of 10 goals which is not saying much considering these are most likely going to be 4 out of the 6 defenseman for the Flyers on a nightly basis (maybe not MacDonald). This makes you wonder that maybe Ivan Provorov should make the team simply for this reason, if he could score just 7 goals for the Flyers this season, he would get them just a little bit closer to the magic 239. Which gets me to my other point, a lot of players who will play for the Flyers this year didn’t have enough stats to make a projection for like Scott Laughton, Nick Cousins, and Evgeny Medvedev. It’s not too hard to believe that in limited appearances this year Laughton and Cousins could each have 5 goals which would bump up the Flyers to 231. With the way Medvedev is looking in the preseason so far, he most likely won’t be quiet offensively this year on the blue line and could score 5 goals which bumps the Flyers up to 236 which is pretty close to the goal. With all this being said, it’s important to know that these projections do not take in injury consideration and is based off the player playing the whole season. With injuries very likely to happen, the projected Flyers goal totals would be less than 221 which is not good. Overall this season comes down to really on if Sean Couturier can hit 20 goals and if Lecavalier and Umberger will have bounce back seasons. The statistics have the Flyers as a bubble team for the playoffs, but I think the Flyers will find a way despite what the math says to be play hockey in late April.
What do you guys think?
AS ALWAYS THANKS FOR READING AND PLEASE EXCUSE MY GRAMMAR.
**All projections are based off math, not my opinion or what I’m saying is going to happen.